I read a lot of blogs, news reports and articles about real estate and especially about our local real estate market here in Honolulu, Hawaii. Yesterday, I ran across a blog post written by "Howzit" Howard of KGMB9. I thought some very interesting and strong points were made. Here are some "snippets"
"Honolulu has one of the more resilient economies in America right now."
"An economy does not run on numbers. It runs on human needs, human desires and human emotions. I will explain to you why the faintest signs of economic bottoming out have enormous import for the Hawaii economy."
"As you have heard, Honolulu has one of the more resilient economies in America right now."
"The Brookings Institution puts Honolulu among the top 20 best-performing metro economies in America, based on second quarter data on employment and economic output."
"Honolulu has indeed enjoyed a shallow recession even by comparison with the state's other islands. Its home prices fell less, and" the Honolulu MLS "reports that in August the average time it took to sell a home fell to 51 days (condos: 48 days)."

Please forgive me for quoting the rest of his article here. Since many articles and blogs get archived, with dead or changed links, I didn't want to link to the rest of his story here. He has made some interesting observations, though, and I wanted to share them:
"Of the 21,000 people receiving unemployment checks across Hawaii, fewer than 11,000 are in Honolulu, though Honolulu has three quarters of the state population.
But it's still a recession and people are still losing their jobs and signs of the recession bottoming out are meaningless unless they lead to actual increased economic activity. Which is where I'm going with this. First, more indicators.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to the aforementioned Brookings Insitution Tuesday, said the recession was "probably" over. Bank of America's CEO made a similar comment Tuesday. Hawaii economists see resumption of growth by year's end.
I have emphasized that the end of a recession is not the end of slump. Clawing our way back from the bottom to the next peak will take years. A University of the Pacific forecast Tuesday says California's recovery will lag the nation, and that could mean an even slower rebound in visitor traffic than we now expect. Japan Airlines is losing millions a month and needs to cut back.
The thing is, a lot of Hawaii businesses that are still doing okay have been holding back on spending, beyond necessity, because they wanted to be cautious and they weren't sure how long the economy would keep shrinking.
This is critical. Healthy businesses, weathering the downturn with reasonable aplomb, delayed expansion, suspended advertising, left vacant jobs unfilled, and otherwise contributed to the recession because they wanted a sense, before spending money on these things, that the downturn wasn't going to last forever.

For these businesses, clear evidence that the recession is over and a recovery, however slow, is underway, will trigger fresh consideration of ways to harness that recovery and expand market share.
A parallel phenomenon has been going on with consumers. We understandably forget it when focusing on people losing their jobs or having their hours cut back, but most people will come through this recession never having lost their job. And they've curbed their spending, too, because they were waiting to see how they would fare.
The simple fact of the recession ending - I mean when it is really clear that we've stopped descending - no matter how slow the return to the surface - will trigger spending by households that have had the money to spend all along but were exercising reasonable prudence during the descent.
A notable example of business people recognizing this and preparing for it is the people who sell cars. The Hawaii Auto Dealers Association sees pent-up demand spurring sales in 2010, because cars don't last forever and you have to have a car. But this is an extreme case. If your car breaks down you'll replace it if you can, even if the economy is still shrinking.
What I'm talking about is more discretionary spending that consumers can undertake now but won't undertake until they feel the worst is over and they probably will get to keep their job.

This is why, though the recovery may indeed take years, the discernible, demonstrable bottom of the recession will itself trigger spending by businesses and consumers alike. Businesses will not only feel more comfortable proceeding with projects that they wisely put on hold, they will also want to spend to make sure they get their share of the pent-up consumer spending that is waiting for the same good news they are."
Mahalo for reading.
Special thanks to Howzit" Howard of KGMB9. Please give his blog a visit at http://kgmb9.com/howard/category/sunrise-on-kgmb9/
Mahalo For Reading.
If you or anyone you know is thinking about buying or selling a condo in Honolulu, Hawaii, it would be my pleasure to help.
Douglas Fischer, R.A., REALTOR, ePro, C.D.P.E.
RE/MAX Honolulu
www.HNLCondos.com
808-497-3810
Douglas@HNLCondos.com

Douglas is an experienced and respected Honolulu, Hawaii Realtor Associate, in partnership with his Japanese speaking partner, Christopher Sumida, who specialize in residential Real Estate and the sale of Condos in the greater Honolulu area including the neighborhoods of: Waikiki, Diamond Head, Ala Moana, Kakaako, Kapiolani, Makiki, Chinatown and Downtown Honolulu.
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