Honolulu Condos: 2009 and 2010 Forecast Comparison for Honolulu, Hawaii and Real Estate in Oahu

2009 and 2010 Forecast Comparison for Honolulu, Hawaii and Real Estate in Oahu

Just for fun, let's review the forecast for 2009 and compare it to the actual numbers.  It's interesting to see what was predicted a year ago and what actually happened.

Source: University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Economagic.com, First Hawaiian Bank Economic Forecast
Unemployment:

The unemployment rate for 2009 was actually worse than predicted.  It will remain at the same level in 2010 with a slight increase.

Real Personal Income (inflation-adjusted):

Personal income will show a smaller loss this year than what was predicted for 2009.  This may be because there were large gains in public sector earnings, especially large military pay increases in 2009.  Total private sector labor and proprietor income will continue dropping, and it will appear as another loss in 2010.

Visitor Arrivals:

The number of visitors in 2009 were about the same as predicted so far.  According to UHERO, we are very likely past the bottom of the tourism downturn.  There will be more visitor arrivals in 2010.

It is predicted that gradual improvement will begin to occur in early 2010.  However, recovery will likely be slower because of lingering weakness in the US and Japan and the disastrous State budget picture.  Key for 2010 is "patience." 

What about the real estate in Oahu? 

As personal income becomes stable, affordability is more likely to improve.  Some experts predict there will be a smaller drop in 2010 before prices stabilize in 2011.  There could be more foreclosures in the first quarter, and more short sale listings in hotel condominiums and vacation properties. 

It appears good values would still be available in market the first half of 2010.

Quick Market Stats:

Number of Sales

Condominium:   407 (6.8% UP from last month)

Single Family:   249 (11.4% DOWN from last month)

Median Sales Price

Condominium:   $320,000 (8.5% UP from last month)

Single Family:   $590,000 (2.5% DOWN from last month)

Days on market

Condominium:   32 days (5 days LESS than last month)

Single Family:   42 days (10 days LESS than last month)

Inventory

Condominium:   1,749 (4.3% DECREASE from last month)

Single Family:   1,199 (6.5% DECREASE from last month)

That's all the forecasting for 2009........Happy New Year!